Rape Statistics Rise in the 25th Precinct, May Reflect Greater Willingness to Report

One uptown police precinct goes against the tide in rape statistics, but that may not represent bad news.

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By David Mora

Despite a general decline citywide over several years, reported rapes in the northern part of East Harlem have increased over the past decade, possibly due to more victims coming forward.

“Very few people actually report sexual assault, so if reports are going up this means more people are coming forward, feeling confident enough to speak out,” said Tori Rosenberg, spokesperson for the New York City Alliance Against Sexual Assault.

Although citywide rape complaints increased to 177 last month, most of the city’s police precincts show a long-term decline since 2000 and remain significantly lower than decades ago, police incident-level historic data shows.

The 25th Precinct, covering the area north of East 115th Street and east of Fifth Avenue, including Randall’s and Wards Islands, stands apart. Since 2006, reported sexual abuse has overall increased to an average of 23 annual reports, sharply contrasting with neighboring precincts where rapes have gone down.

The upward trend, however, might be a positive sign, advocates and researchers said, given the stigma and silence surrounding sexual crimes.

“In 70 percent of the cases, rapes are committed by someone the victim knew, which makes it a crime very unlikely to report,” said Elizabeth Jeglic, 43, director of the Sexual Offender Research Lab at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.

At the national level, only 32.5 percent of rape cases are reported to authorities, the Bureau of Justice Statistics estimates.

Both officers at the 25th Precinct and spokespersons at NYPD headquarters declined to comment on rape statistics uptown.

In the long-term, rape reports in the 25th Precinct are rising, in comparison to decreasing reports from other uptown precincts (23, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34) and citywide. *Data available as of October 2017. Source: NYPD Complaint Data Historic, available in the city’s open data website.

But Rosenberg said that the New York City Police Department has improved various approaches to sex offenses, from the way officers speak to victims to the quality of information they collect.

“They have undergone a lot of training about domestic violence and sexual abuse,” Jeglic said. “Decades ago, for example, a husband couldn’t sexually abuse his wife, but now these situations are acknowledged.”

As a result, people are increasingly reporting older rape cases and rape figures increase.

More than one third of reports filed this year as of October in uptown precincts referred to crimes committed about four years ago. A fifth of the annual complaints filed since 2006 were for events that happened an average of three years before the filing date; some cases go as far back as the early 1990s.

In the northern part of East Harlem, an average of six reports concerning past sexual abuse have been filed annually since 2012, doubling the “old” cases reported before that year.

The recent allegations against celebrities Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein that happened in the past have encouraged more victims to talk about their assaults, said Jeglic.

When victims get to stand before the criminal justice system, they can potentially be victimized again. “So, when other people openly acknowledge their cases and they are given a voice, it is easier for other victims to do so,” Jeglic said. “To know, ‘I am one of many’ makes the process easier.”

The “Cosby effect,” former NYPD Commissioner William J. Bratton called it in a 2016 press conference. After the TV star and comedian went to court for assaults allegedly committed 30 to 40 years ago, more victims came forward.

“In New York State, there is no statute of limitations for rape in the first degree,” said Kenneth Blake, a former prosecutor specializing in child sexual abuse cases. “If a person has sexual intercourse with someone else through the use of force or the threat of it, or has sexual intercourse with a child under the age of 11, there is no time limit on when that person can be arrested and prosecuted.”

Blake noted that reported rapes might be increasing for numerous reasons, but rising or falling figures don’t necessarily mean fewer or more crimes.

“It’s a correlation, not causation,” he said. And more reports don’t necessarily bring justice for the victim. “Not all reports get to actual arrests, and not all arrests end up in convictions. So, many people get away with these crimes.”

Although rape reports in the 25th Precinct increased, neighboring precincts have had fewer  complaints since 2006. *Data available as of October 2017. Source: NYPD Complaint Data Historic, available in the city’s open data website.

Jeglic said that nationally, of the roughly one-third of rapes that are reported, “18 percent turn into arrests, and in just 2 percent of the cases the offender ends up in jail, and the figures must be similar for the city,” she said.

As to the reasons reports in the 25th Precinct are rising, Jeglic said that “each precinct has its own culture, as microcosms, so victims might receive different messages across different precincts when reporting.”

Other uptown precincts, such as the 34th in Washington Heights and Inwood, have experienced significant declines. It had on average 25 rape reports each year since 2000 — two more than the 25th Precinct in East Harlem — yet rape reports have decreased: they fell to 10 last year from 40 in 2000.

The 32nd Precinct in northern Harlem had a similar downward trend. After an annual average of 33 rape complaints for the last 17 years, the highest uptown, its current reports are 40 percent lower than the 45 complaints filed in 2000.

(Feature image and graphics by David Mora)

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