By Andrew Keshner and Joshua Tapper

Widespread unemployment in uptown Manhattan is forcing people to find new careers or juggle several jobs, while touching off concerns that those lost jobs might not come back, local business leaders say.

Elbagina Bonilla, deputy director of the Northern Manhattan Coalition for Economic Development, sees rising unemployment rates weighing heavily on local residents. A particularly hard-hit demographic is young heads of household from their 20s to their 40s, she says.

As the economy dives, a way of life becomes tougher for low-income individuals and families, says Ernest Johnson, senior director at Strive, an East Harlem-based agency that assists the chronically unemployed nationwide. “It’s difficult,” he says. “People are having it pretty rough. A lot of people are hurting.”

Looking at the numbers, it’s not hard to see why: The unemployment rate has essentially doubled since last year. As of October, the unemployment rate in Manhattan was 9.2 percent, says Jim Brown, labor market analyst for the New York State Department of Labor. In October 2008 – the month after Lehman Brothers imploded – it was just 5.5 percent citywide. Unemployment rose from 6.3 to 10.3 percent citywide during the same period.

Unemployed Inwood woman sells her belongings from Shane Snow on Vimeo.

But the unemployment rates of uptown Manhattan neighborhoods are drastically higher than the borough or citywide numbers. Historically, neighborhoods with a high concentration of African Americans have been hit harder by labor market shocks than the rest of the population, explains Kevin Foster, a City College economist. Typically, African Americans work jobs susceptible to layoffs, like personal care and food preparation, Foster says. The black unemployment rate is 15.7 percent nationwide, and it’s especially dire among 16-to-19-year olds, nearly 40 percent of whom are without work. Even before the recession, African Americans had an 8 percent unemployment rate. “It started at a level the country would have called a recession,” Foster says. “Now it’s at a depression level.”

In East Harlem, for example, unemployment climbed from 16 percent in 2005 to between 18.3 and 19.2 percent so far this year, according to Johnson. Johnson believes the East Harlem unemployment rate will peak at 19 to 20 percent over the next two or three months. The neighborhood represents a “microcosm for the rest of the country,” Johnson said.

Bonilla sees some people taking on two or three small jobs to make ends meet; others look to change careers or improve their computer skills. Her organization offers training for child care and security jobs and she reports increased interest in both. Between 20 and 25 people have taken the security training course this year, says Bonilla, compared with 10 to 15 who took the course last year. Last year, the organization offered six classes aimed at helping people open childcare businesses; this year, the organization may offer eight, owing to higher demand. Both Johnson and Foster says green collar jobs are becoming popular in low-income neighborhoods, a result of President Obama’s economic stimulus package. Strive, for example, offers training in green construction.

Henry Calderon, executive director of the East Harlem Chamber of Commerce, has seen some businesses cut back on employees as local consumers trim their own budgets to necessities like rent and food. Though some well-established businesses are still getting by on lower volumes, others, like restaurants, are feeling the pinch.

Foster, the economist, believes many unskilled labor jobs will return once the economy rebounds, simply because they don’t require much training or education. But Calderon, heading an organization representing almost 230 businesses, says there is still a lot of pessimism about the economy improving anytime soon.

And when it does improve, he worries that businesses won’t rehire the same number of workers they let go and will try to do more with less. “The net result,” he says, “is a loss of jobs even if it picks up.”